MMA Picks: Getting Picks in Early

Online sportsbooks have embraced MMA as much as the mainstream media has, with most of them putting up MMA odds on all the fights. One of the things I believe is important to making a profit when betting on MMA is to look for great line value very early. I’ve been saying this often in our MMA picks and analysis forum over at www.BetRepublic.com (there is great MMA info there every day)…if you are into betting on the events, you want to make sure you have a look at the odds when they are first posted at your sportsbook, as you can find some gems.

Yes, you can also run some risk of additional news coming in that goes against your original bet, or after doing some more in-depth handicapping you realize you’re not as confident about the matchup and the fighter you chose, absolutely it can happen. That said, if you have done your homework, know the fighters, assess the lines properly and pick your spots, you can find some real gems when you step up when the lines first hit.

Let's take the last UFC as an example. Early lines appeared for Penn at around -190 or so. If you look at value, Pen at under -200 is awesome. Considering he was in great shape and came off the Florian fight with gas still in the tank, Penn was a good bet against anyone in the division, especially at anything under -200. BJ came in about -300 before the event, which was still decent but it wasn't sub two-hundred. An early commitment would have paid out handsomely.

The Alexander/Slice fight for the Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale showed this trend as well. With Alexander opening around -120 at most online sportsbooks and then gaining momentum as the favorite, he closed at the -300 range. An early bet would have been a good bet. If Alexander won of course. This just reminds us that we have to do our homework on the fighters as well. As you know, there's more to the bet than the making sure you get great odds.

If you know who you want to bet and will stick with that choice no matter how the action affects the lines, an early bet should be considered. Check out the day the lines come out as we always have a healthy discussion and a few early picks. Futures on your favorites can be a great value. Don't rush in though, but watch closely and when you see some movement and the direction they take, you should start considering your choices.

The main thing is to check lines early and to keep checking back. The next most important thing is to place the bet, because if you don't wager, you can't win.

Good luck with your MMA Picks.

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Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

All in all it was a 2-10 ATS Sunday betting favorites in the NFL and a day like that can create a lot of hesitation for bettors making picks in the week ahead.

If you had an off-week and were hurt by a bad beat or total that just missed, taking a few days to regroup could be a good strategy before charging into the Week 10 card.

Have a look at our Power Rankings to see how Week 9 changed the landscape Read More!

Top Online Sport Bookmakers

There are currently hundreds of online sports books available on the net. Choosing the top online sports bookmaker can be very confusing, not to mention if you have just begun betting online. Clearly, you want to deposit your money in it that makes you feel safe, not only the one that offers you the best odds and fast payout. There are, however, several points to which bettors often pay attention before choosing their bookmaker.

* Easy and Fast Cash Out is a very important aspect as many bettors have complained about payout delay, which makes them uneasy while thinking about not being able to receive the money the have won.
* Credibility and Security. A sports book with high credibility and well established security allows bettors to rest assured as their money is safe.
* Attractive Bonuses/Free Bets are very important to some bettors and this offer can be very tempting to entice people to start betting online.
* Customer service shows how good and how credible a bookmaker is. Bad customer service tends to give bettors bad impression about it.
* Available Odds/Lines. Numbers are essential to betting, two or three points difference could mean a difference between winning and losing.
* Fund Transfer Methods. Various withdrawal and deposit methods give bettors many choices and make them feel more convenient because they will not worry too much about how to deposit and receive their money.
* Easy to Access Website. A magnificent betting interface allows bettors to place their wager comfortably without having to waste too much time on searching.
* Various Betting Coverage. Most have popular sports to bet on. A bookmaker with more various betting coverage introduces itself as a better bookmaker than others.

You would wish that a sport bookmaker has all those aspects covered in a package to offer. In fact there is no perfect one available. There is, however, several sports books that are close to being perfect. Read More!

How Do Bookmakers Calculate Odds?

Although there are a lot of materials on this topic around the Internet, I have found them a bit confusing and hard to understand. A good sports bettor has to know the real probabilities in order to make a good pick. Don't be surprised when I tell you that the coefficients you see when you bet on games, are actually far away from their "true" value.

Let's look at the following example, that I will use in this article, to make things more clear for you:

Say we have: TeamA and TeamB and their true probabilities are the following:

TeamA: 55% chance of winning
TeamB: 25% chance of winning
A draw between the two sides: 20% chance
When you sum up the above percentages you get 100%, which means that if the bookmaker offers you those odds they will neither win nor loose. So in order for them to profit they modify the original values to something similar:
TeamA: 54% chance of winning
TeamB: 32.4% chance of winning
A draw between the two sides: 21.6% chance
Now the sum is 108% which will guarantee the bookmaker a profit of 8%.
In European format, these odds are displayed as coefficients:
54% = 1.85
32.4% = 3.09
21.6% = 4.63
At these odds, the bookmaker pays out the player's stake multiplied by 1.85 or multiplied by 3.09 or multiplied by 4.63. Too keep things simple here's what I am talking about:
Using these figures, we can calculate back to 8%: the amount of profit the bookmaker will take:
For each $100 staked, $50 would be on TeamA to win, $30 on TeamB to win, and $20 on a draw.
If TeamA wins, the bookie pays out 50*1.85 = $92.50
If TeamB wins, the bookie pays out 30*3.09 = $92.70
If the two sides draw, the bookie pays out 20*4.63 = $92.60
This would be perfect for the bookmaker if everyone bets according to the odds. However we all know most people bet on who they favor.This is also called the "public opinion spread". This means that even though TeamB has only 32.4% chance of winning, its supporters would bet on it.
Let's say the actual "public opinion spread" is:
70% total money staked on TeamA to win
25% total money staked on TeamB to win
5% total money staked on a draw between the two sides
For every $100 staked, the bookmaker will take $70 on TeamA, $25 on TeamB, and $5 on a draw.
If the bookmaker offered odds as per the 'true' probabilities - and not as per the actual spread of bets, for each $100 they took, they would pay out (with profit margin accounted for):
If TeamA wins: 70*1.85 = $129.50
If TeamB wins: 25*3.09 = $77.25
If the two sides draw: 5*4.63 = $23.15
You see now that this is not a very good way to make profit, because in some cases the bookmaker will win money and some will loose money.So instead, the bookmaker aims to make a consistent profit by calculating its odds based not on the likely outcomes, but rather on the spread of bets that they expect to receive on the different outcomes.
So a bookmaker expecting the following spread of bets:
70% total money staked on TeamA to win
25% total money staked on TeamB to win
5% total money staked on a draw between the two sides
will adjust its profit margin at 8% profit, so the percentages will be - 75.6% / 27% / 5.4%
And converting these figures to odds:
1.32 TeamA to win
3.70 TeamB to win
18.52 for a draw between the two sides
So on each $100 staked:
If TeamA wins bookmaker pays out 1.32*70 = $92.40
If TeamB wins bookmaker pays out 3.70*25 = $92.50
If it's a draw bookmaker pays out 18.52*5 = $92.60
Thus the bookmaker's profit is between $7 and $8 = 8%. (Rounding of figures dictates that the profit is not always precisely 8%.)
Bookmakers employ further formulas to calculate adjustments to make to odds depending on the actual money flow on each outcome of an event.

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Bookmakers

The origins of bookmaking have vanished into the past, but betting, especially on horse racing, has been ingrained in the character of England for centuries. Originally betting would have been between individuals, with the largest sums of money wagered on the Classic races, such as the Derby and the St Leger. Betting was the domain of the wealthy, but betting contracts, where no money changed hands, often led to large debts and animosity. The Gaming Act of 1845 banned this practice and bookmakers began to insist on cash up front.

Betting shops started being set up around the country but were outlawed by the 1853 Betting Act, and were not legalised until 1 May 1961, after which 10,000 were set up within 6 months, with some of the illegal bookies making it through the new vetting procedures, established by the 1960 Betting and Gaming Act. However a lot of them found that entering into the business world was outside of their capability, being unable to set up premises, pay staff and 'go straight.' As well as this, betting tax was increased and the Government imposed a 33 per cent tax on the fixed-odds coupons issued by bookmakers. The number of High Street shops began to decline, and now there are just over 8,000.

Punters could listen only to an audio commentary on races in the betting shops, provided by the Exchange Telegraph Company, with each region having a 'local' commentator with a 'local' accent. In 1986 the regulation relaxed and television screens were permitted which would bring live racing via satellite to the majority of shops. Bookmakers were permitted to open in the evenings and on Sundays, but duty at 10 per cent was driving punters to illegal bookmakers, who, operating in pubs, clubs and factories, accounted for a 10 per cent of betting turnover.

Another two events have had a massive impact on bookmakers - the first when Frankie Dettori rode all seven winners at Ascot in 1996, which resulted in massive payouts. The second was the introduction of the National Lottery and particularly scratchcards in 1995, with the betting shops being denied the right to sell tickets. A Government survey on gambling revealed that 57% of gamblers use the lottery, 20% buy scratchcards and 17% bet on horseracing.


However in the past decade, measures have been taken to rebalance the nation's gambling impulses. Tax on betting-shop wagers was cut from 10% to 9% and abolished in 2002, in favour of a tax on the bookies' gross profits. Rules regarding betting on football were relaxed, allowing bets on single matches, and betting shops have been allowed to install fixed-odds betting terminals and fruit machines.

Online gambling is today's worry on bookmakers but the figures suggest that the world of internet gambling and betting shops could live side by side -the four biggest betting shop companies still seem strongly committed to betting shops. William Hill currently runs more than 2,250 shops; Ladbrokes has 2,350; Coral owns 1,600; and totesport manages 540. Paddy Power, which has 58 British shops, mostly in and around London, announced profits of £55.2m for 2007, half of this coming from online operations. But its UK shops also made money and it plans to have twice as many by 2011. Read More!