NFL Picks: For the Upcoming Week 14 NFL

If the mighty haven’t fallen yet, they’re teetering.

Perennial pre-season favourites Pittsburgh and New England aren’t at the centre of the playoff discussion with just four weeks of regular-season football remaining. It’s certainly not the type of claim — regarding these two organizations — we’re used to hearing at this time of year.

Much can change in a short period of time, but you can mark this one down: if the Steelers (at 6-6) don’t guzzle the Browns on Thursday, their season is done.

Tom Brady and his Patriots (7-5) have a little more rope, but not a full coil. New England’s advantage could be the schedule. In the final two weeks, the Patriots face Jacksonville and Houston, two teams they’ll likely need to beat out to land a wild-card slot if they can’t harness the AFC East title.

• THURSDAY

Pittsburgh (6-6) at Cleveland (1-11) (+9.5)

The Steelers surrendered 396 yards-combined to Oakland last week. Defensive co-ordinator Dick LeBeau is legendary at making the right adjustments and history tells us to ride his coattails and QB Ben Roethlisberger’s arm when the season’s on the line. Take the Steelers.

• SUNDAY

New Orleans (12-0) at Atlanta (6-6) (+10.5)

How bad does Drew Brees have it? He takes his air show onto the immaculate carpet and conditions at the Georgia Dome seven days after ripping up the turf in Washington with 419 yards. Can we at least hit 500 this week? Brees leads the NFL in passer rating (111.3) and TDs (29) and faces the fourth-worst pass defence in the league. Take the Saints.

Green Bay (8-4) at Chicago (5-7) (+3)

Wasn’t it Chicago that was supposed the have the dominating defence? The Packers are fourth against the run and fifth against the pass. Since the Bears can’t do either (watch the logic kick in here folks …), take the Packers.

St. Louis (1-11) at Tennessee (5-7) (-12.5)

According to Accuscore, a simulator that forecasts the probability of teams winning games, the Titans have a nine per cent chance of making the playoffs. Miraculous comebacks don’t come around often and that loss to Indy last week likely ended things for Tennessee. They’ll take it out on the Rams this weekend. Take the Titans.

Denver (8-4) at Indianapolis (12-0) (-7)

Nice bounce-back shown by the Broncos the past two weeks after dropping four in a row. Denver faces a Colts team that astounds, given the injuries. Indianapolis has Peyton, but they’ve also dug up a good running attack led by Joseph Addai (two TDs last week). Take the Colts.

Buffalo (4-8) at Kansas City (3-9) (+1)

How meaningful is this one? Well for one participant, not really. Terrell Owens signed with a modelling agency this week to go with his reality show and breakfast cereal. "When you’ve got some good looks like myself, you’ve got to take full advantage of it," the sometime focused Bills receiver said. There’s no catwalk in KC. Take the Chiefs.

Cincinnati (9-3) at Minnesota (10-2) (-6.5)

The Bengals have underwhelmed lately. The Vikings need a rebound game after losing convincingly to Arizona. Take the Vikings.

Carolina (5-7) at New England (7-5) (-13)

Pats have dropped three of four and might be reeling, but Carolina is one soft spot New England can land on. Take the Patriots.

NY Jets (6-6) at Tampa Bay (1-11) (+3)

Rookie QB Mark Sanchez (sprained knee) sits and Kellen Clemens takes his spot. Tough break for the Jets, who’ve won two straight but the offence has dried up. Expect to see a lot of RB Thomas Jones, which should be enough against the league’s second-worst run stop. Take the Jets.

Miami (6-6) at Jacksonville (7-5) (-3)
Huge win for the Jags last week against Houston; ditto for Miami against the Pats. The Jags’ schedule down the stretch (Indy, at New England) is a brute and any hope for a wild card rests with a must-win at home this week. Take the Jaguars.

Detroit (2-10) at Baltimore (6-6) (-13)

The Ravens move forward after a trio of tough games (Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Green Bay). There’s no chance of a letdown Sunday with an opportunity to improve the playoff chances. RB Ray Rice is a great fantasy play. Take the Ravens.

Seattle (5-7) at Houston (5-7) (-6)

Rumblings have Houston coach Gary Kubiak in trouble and this is desperation time for a Texans team that should be playing better. Neither team has much of a run game, meaning Matt Schaub versus Matt Hasselbeck. Take Schaub; take the Texans. Read More!

New England Patriots in the NFL

The league has clearly been stratified this year—there are the top contenders, and then there's everyone else. We have a bevy of teams that are just plain horrible: the Titans, Browns, Bucs, Chiefs, Rams, Redskins, Raiders, and Lions are all haplessly running out the clock at this point.
Pundits everywhere are decrying the blowouts and questioning what can be done.
Why does this matter to the Patriots? Well, the team has been on the winning side of some awfully lopsided games. Since the team is part of the NFL's current ruling class, it behooves fans to know when guillotine sales go up.
Successful teams should listen very closely whenever there is talk of leveling the playing field.
What complicates matters is the current collective bargaining agreement talks between the NFL and the players' union. This means the league would be ideally positioned to launch a large, system-altering change like the salary cap and free agency.
I believe, though, that a substantial change to the way the league is set up is unlikely.
When you look at the league's changes over the years, they have always intended to right a tangible wrong: free agency took away a team's ability to control a player's career, and the salary cap prevented the sort of payroll disparity we currently see in baseball.
What, then, would be the tangible wrong in today's NFL?
The teams mentioned earlier aren't there because they lack the money to compete, or because players are unavailable. No, those teams are currently losing because they have been mismanaged over several years (with the exception of the Titans, whose downfall this year has been unexpected).
Their personnel staffs have evaluated players incorrectly. Their front offices have signed ill-advised, cap-killing deals. They've likely had a revolving door at the coaching positions, each new one seeking to implement his own system (and consequently resulting in a whole lot of mismatched pieces).
Teams like the Pats, Colts, and Steelers succeed because they evaluate talent well, properly manage their caps, and have stable coaching situations.
How, then, could the problem be fixed? The league doesn't (and shouldn't) have the power to completely reshape noncompeting teams.
The NFL has spent years protecting teams from those factors typically blamed for imbalance, but it has finally found one that cannot be solved easily: organizational incompetence.
Perhaps things are as they should be—well-run teams (like the Pats, Colts, and Steelers) are seeing their foresight rewarded. Poorly-run teams are performing miserably.
Perhaps imbalance is the natural state of things.
That won't stop people from bemoaning 59-0 games, though. Read More!