MMA Picks: Getting Picks in Early

Online sportsbooks have embraced MMA as much as the mainstream media has, with most of them putting up MMA odds on all the fights. One of the things I believe is important to making a profit when betting on MMA is to look for great line value very early. I’ve been saying this often in our MMA picks and analysis forum over at www.BetRepublic.com (there is great MMA info there every day)…if you are into betting on the events, you want to make sure you have a look at the odds when they are first posted at your sportsbook, as you can find some gems.

Yes, you can also run some risk of additional news coming in that goes against your original bet, or after doing some more in-depth handicapping you realize you’re not as confident about the matchup and the fighter you chose, absolutely it can happen. That said, if you have done your homework, know the fighters, assess the lines properly and pick your spots, you can find some real gems when you step up when the lines first hit.

Let's take the last UFC as an example. Early lines appeared for Penn at around -190 or so. If you look at value, Pen at under -200 is awesome. Considering he was in great shape and came off the Florian fight with gas still in the tank, Penn was a good bet against anyone in the division, especially at anything under -200. BJ came in about -300 before the event, which was still decent but it wasn't sub two-hundred. An early commitment would have paid out handsomely.

The Alexander/Slice fight for the Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale showed this trend as well. With Alexander opening around -120 at most online sportsbooks and then gaining momentum as the favorite, he closed at the -300 range. An early bet would have been a good bet. If Alexander won of course. This just reminds us that we have to do our homework on the fighters as well. As you know, there's more to the bet than the making sure you get great odds.

If you know who you want to bet and will stick with that choice no matter how the action affects the lines, an early bet should be considered. Check out the day the lines come out as we always have a healthy discussion and a few early picks. Futures on your favorites can be a great value. Don't rush in though, but watch closely and when you see some movement and the direction they take, you should start considering your choices.

The main thing is to check lines early and to keep checking back. The next most important thing is to place the bet, because if you don't wager, you can't win.

Good luck with your MMA Picks.

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Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

All in all it was a 2-10 ATS Sunday betting favorites in the NFL and a day like that can create a lot of hesitation for bettors making picks in the week ahead.

If you had an off-week and were hurt by a bad beat or total that just missed, taking a few days to regroup could be a good strategy before charging into the Week 10 card.

Have a look at our Power Rankings to see how Week 9 changed the landscape Read More!

NBA Betting Chicago Bulls Vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Trends

The game start time 8:00 PM ET at Stadium: Quicken Loans Arena. The Chicago Bulls look to put their latest debacle behind them as they travel to Cleveland Cavaliers. This is a NBA Regular Season game 2009 on 11/05 at Quicken Loans Arena between Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers.

NBA Betting Trends are as follows.

Cleveland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
Cleveland is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Cleveland is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Chicago
Cleveland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago


Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Chicago is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Chicago is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

My Pick for this match is Cleveland Cavaliers Read More!

How Do Bookmakers Calculate Odds?

Although there are a lot of materials on this topic around the Internet, I have found them a bit confusing and hard to understand. A good sports bettor has to know the real probabilities in order to make a good pick. Don't be surprised when I tell you that the coefficients you see when you bet on games, are actually far away from their "true" value.

Let's look at the following example, that I will use in this article, to make things more clear for you:

Say we have: TeamA and TeamB and their true probabilities are the following:

TeamA: 55% chance of winning
TeamB: 25% chance of winning
A draw between the two sides: 20% chance
When you sum up the above percentages you get 100%, which means that if the bookmaker offers you those odds they will neither win nor loose. So in order for them to profit they modify the original values to something similar:
TeamA: 54% chance of winning
TeamB: 32.4% chance of winning
A draw between the two sides: 21.6% chance
Now the sum is 108% which will guarantee the bookmaker a profit of 8%.
In European format, these odds are displayed as coefficients:
54% = 1.85
32.4% = 3.09
21.6% = 4.63
At these odds, the bookmaker pays out the player's stake multiplied by 1.85 or multiplied by 3.09 or multiplied by 4.63. Too keep things simple here's what I am talking about:
Using these figures, we can calculate back to 8%: the amount of profit the bookmaker will take:
For each $100 staked, $50 would be on TeamA to win, $30 on TeamB to win, and $20 on a draw.
If TeamA wins, the bookie pays out 50*1.85 = $92.50
If TeamB wins, the bookie pays out 30*3.09 = $92.70
If the two sides draw, the bookie pays out 20*4.63 = $92.60
This would be perfect for the bookmaker if everyone bets according to the odds. However we all know most people bet on who they favor.This is also called the "public opinion spread". This means that even though TeamB has only 32.4% chance of winning, its supporters would bet on it.
Let's say the actual "public opinion spread" is:
70% total money staked on TeamA to win
25% total money staked on TeamB to win
5% total money staked on a draw between the two sides
For every $100 staked, the bookmaker will take $70 on TeamA, $25 on TeamB, and $5 on a draw.
If the bookmaker offered odds as per the 'true' probabilities - and not as per the actual spread of bets, for each $100 they took, they would pay out (with profit margin accounted for):
If TeamA wins: 70*1.85 = $129.50
If TeamB wins: 25*3.09 = $77.25
If the two sides draw: 5*4.63 = $23.15
You see now that this is not a very good way to make profit, because in some cases the bookmaker will win money and some will loose money.So instead, the bookmaker aims to make a consistent profit by calculating its odds based not on the likely outcomes, but rather on the spread of bets that they expect to receive on the different outcomes.
So a bookmaker expecting the following spread of bets:
70% total money staked on TeamA to win
25% total money staked on TeamB to win
5% total money staked on a draw between the two sides
will adjust its profit margin at 8% profit, so the percentages will be - 75.6% / 27% / 5.4%
And converting these figures to odds:
1.32 TeamA to win
3.70 TeamB to win
18.52 for a draw between the two sides
So on each $100 staked:
If TeamA wins bookmaker pays out 1.32*70 = $92.40
If TeamB wins bookmaker pays out 3.70*25 = $92.50
If it's a draw bookmaker pays out 18.52*5 = $92.60
Thus the bookmaker's profit is between $7 and $8 = 8%. (Rounding of figures dictates that the profit is not always precisely 8%.)
Bookmakers employ further formulas to calculate adjustments to make to odds depending on the actual money flow on each outcome of an event.

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