MMA Picks: Getting Picks in Early

Online sportsbooks have embraced MMA as much as the mainstream media has, with most of them putting up MMA odds on all the fights. One of the things I believe is important to making a profit when betting on MMA is to look for great line value very early. I’ve been saying this often in our MMA picks and analysis forum over at www.BetRepublic.com (there is great MMA info there every day)…if you are into betting on the events, you want to make sure you have a look at the odds when they are first posted at your sportsbook, as you can find some gems.

Yes, you can also run some risk of additional news coming in that goes against your original bet, or after doing some more in-depth handicapping you realize you’re not as confident about the matchup and the fighter you chose, absolutely it can happen. That said, if you have done your homework, know the fighters, assess the lines properly and pick your spots, you can find some real gems when you step up when the lines first hit.

Let's take the last UFC as an example. Early lines appeared for Penn at around -190 or so. If you look at value, Pen at under -200 is awesome. Considering he was in great shape and came off the Florian fight with gas still in the tank, Penn was a good bet against anyone in the division, especially at anything under -200. BJ came in about -300 before the event, which was still decent but it wasn't sub two-hundred. An early commitment would have paid out handsomely.

The Alexander/Slice fight for the Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale showed this trend as well. With Alexander opening around -120 at most online sportsbooks and then gaining momentum as the favorite, he closed at the -300 range. An early bet would have been a good bet. If Alexander won of course. This just reminds us that we have to do our homework on the fighters as well. As you know, there's more to the bet than the making sure you get great odds.

If you know who you want to bet and will stick with that choice no matter how the action affects the lines, an early bet should be considered. Check out the day the lines come out as we always have a healthy discussion and a few early picks. Futures on your favorites can be a great value. Don't rush in though, but watch closely and when you see some movement and the direction they take, you should start considering your choices.

The main thing is to check lines early and to keep checking back. The next most important thing is to place the bet, because if you don't wager, you can't win.

Good luck with your MMA Picks.

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UFC Betting: Penn vs Sanchez

B.J. Penn and Diego Sanchez have kept the posturing to a minimum as Saturday's UFC lightweight title fight in Memphis approaches.
The same can't be said about the fighters' swarming camps, which opened up Thursday night about their fighters, their game plans and their thoughts on the other guy.
Asked for his opinion of Sanchez, the 27-year-old challenger, Penn's longtime trainer Rudy Valentino didn't bury the texted lede: "Diego will defeat himself mentally in this fight."
Sanchez's legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu coach Saulo Ribeiro laughed.
"He's one of the strongest guys mentally I've ever met in my life," Ribeiro said over the phone. "He just refuses to give up. He refuses to quit."
So, why will Sanchez be the first fighter since Jens Pulver in 2001 to defeat Penn (14-5-1) at 155 pounds?
Start Online Betting on this match at our sportsbook
"I think B.J. has been a great champ for 10 years, but the sport is evolving so much that I think Diego is ready to take it to the next level," said Ribeiro, implying Penn, one of MMA's most complete fighters, still just 30, has gone the way of month-old organic milk.
Back and forth, not malicious but invested and full of faith, supporters talked up their man and downplayed the other. Standing out on both sides was a sense of inevitability, as if the main event at the FedExForum (UFC PPV, 10 p.m. ET) was mere formality. And that determination was going to be the difference.
"It's the natural order," said Ribeiro, who joined his brother Xande, cardio man Steve Maxwell, boxing trainer Tony Palafox, and Olympic silver medalist wrestler Steve Abas in San Diego to prepare Sanchez (21-2). "Nobody hunted B.J. That's what I want to see. How will the champ react? He's never been hunted at 155. And Diego really believes he'll be the aggressor and will take the fight wherever he wants."
Belief and execution aren't the same thing, countered Penn's boxing trainer Jason Parrilo, who ran camp in Costa Mesa, Calif., with conditioning gurus Marv and Gary Marinovich (of the Todd Marinovich Marinoviches), and the entertaining Rudy V.
"Diego hasn't shown my any type of threat but his intensity and his willingness to go for it," Parrilo said. "With B.J., he's going to fall into something he's not prepared for.
Start Online Betting on this match at our sportsbook Read More!

UFC Betting: Penn vs Sanchez

B.J. Penn and Diego Sanchez have kept the posturing to a minimum as Saturday's UFC lightweight title fight in Memphis approaches.
The same can't be said about the fighters' swarming camps, which opened up Thursday night about their fighters, their game plans and their thoughts on the other guy.
Asked for his opinion of Sanchez, the 27-year-old challenger, Penn's longtime trainer Rudy Valentino didn't bury the texted lede: "Diego will defeat himself mentally in this fight."
Sanchez's legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu coach Saulo Ribeiro laughed.
"He's one of the strongest guys mentally I've ever met in my life," Ribeiro said over the phone. "He just refuses to give up. He refuses to quit."
So, why will Sanchez be the first fighter since Jens Pulver in 2001 to defeat Penn (14-5-1) at 155 pounds?
Start Online Betting on this match at our sportsbook
"I think B.J. has been a great champ for 10 years, but the sport is evolving so much that I think Diego is ready to take it to the next level," said Ribeiro, implying Penn, one of MMA's most complete fighters, still just 30, has gone the way of month-old organic milk.
Back and forth, not malicious but invested and full of faith, supporters talked up their man and downplayed the other. Standing out on both sides was a sense of inevitability, as if the main event at the FedExForum (UFC PPV, 10 p.m. ET) was mere formality. And that determination was going to be the difference.
"It's the natural order," said Ribeiro, who joined his brother Xande, cardio man Steve Maxwell, boxing trainer Tony Palafox, and Olympic silver medalist wrestler Steve Abas in San Diego to prepare Sanchez (21-2). "Nobody hunted B.J. That's what I want to see. How will the champ react? He's never been hunted at 155. And Diego really believes he'll be the aggressor and will take the fight wherever he wants."
Belief and execution aren't the same thing, countered Penn's boxing trainer Jason Parrilo, who ran camp in Costa Mesa, Calif., with conditioning gurus Marv and Gary Marinovich (of the Todd Marinovich Marinoviches), and the entertaining Rudy V.
"Diego hasn't shown my any type of threat but his intensity and his willingness to go for it," Parrilo said. "With B.J., he's going to fall into something he's not prepared for.
Start Online Betting on this match at our sportsbook Read More!

UFC 104 Picks : Machida vs. Shogun

Machida's skill and mastery out-class Shogun's aggressive muay thai. Machida over Shogun. At -405 I won't be betting on this one.

- Rothwell is my dog pick for this event. Valesquez is a rising star, but Rothwell's experience may actually be the difference here. Underdog pick is Rothwell at +235.

- I like Stevenson's chances against Fisher. Although Fisher could win this standing up, Stevenson will likely get Fisher to the ground and control the fight. I expect this one to go to a UD for Stevenson. I'm with the odds makers here. Stevenson at -245 is a fair bet.

- Remember Yoshida eating Koschek's fists then being carried out of the cage on a stretcher? Johnson surely does. Many think this fight will be a replay as Johnson is being seen as a stronger, more physical fighter capable of KO'ing Yoshida. If it goes to the ground, Yoshida is favored. The problem is that Johnson is strong enough put off the takedown. I'm going with odds on this one. Johnson is -315. A small dog on Yoshida at +255 was being considered though.

- Okami's favored at -225 to Sonnen's +185 line. I believe this is Okami's third straight under card bout. He was once very close to getting a title shot with Silva until he broke his hand. Cote got the nod instead. Okami's winning again, but maybe not in a way that puts him in the "entertainment" column. Okami's got to dominate and destroy in order to get to the main card. Sonnen's a great match-up. Ultimately, this could end up in a decision.

- The Barry/Hardonk match-up could end with one of the fighters getting his walking papers. Reach and experience do go to Hardonk. Barry's 1-1 UFC, while Hardonk's 4-3 UFC. Lines are -110 for Barry, -120 for Hardonk. Barry's still fighting at heavyweight at 5'11". Personally, I'm staying away from this one. Barry should have too. (Sidenote: this could be a stand-up, leg-kick brawl - TKO on the way.)

- Darth Bader returns from a MCL and PCL knee injury from this April. The TUF 8 LHW winner, Ryan Bader, is heavily favored over Eric Schafer. At -435 for Bader and +355 for Schafer, you can see what the sportsbooks think of Schafer's chances. I agree. Read More!